Propylene rose sharply, downstream upside down opportunities and risks coexist
in two days, Shandong propylene price rose by 250 yuan/ton to yuan/ton, and rose by about 220 yuan on Monday alone. As soon as this increase was announced, market participants, like frying the pot, were asking a question: "is propylene crazy again, how did it rise so much?"
for the market of small yellow cars equipped with BASF "running shoe tyres" (source: BASF officials) this week, we expected an increase, but we didn't expect this increase. The increase of more than 200 a day is really exaggerated for the recent market. Maybe the supply side is tight, and the production enterprises have the element of pushing up, but it also reflects the market atmosphere, the psychology of downstream looting. Is there an atmosphere of speculation about the rise of propylene? Is this price supported
judging from the current profits of downstream enterprises, the price difference of PP granular powder is 200 yuan, which should be guaranteed by reason. However, due to the high temperature in summer, the demand for powder is off-season, and the trading is weak. In addition, the price of propylene has climbed to a high of 8600. Due to cost pressure, powder enterprises are actively following the rise of propylene, but the price has risen to the 9000 yuan level. The terminal just needs to buy and starts to resist, the purchase is not active, the mentality tends to be cautious, and the wait-and-see mood is rising, Powder delivery is average. Under normal circumstances, the price difference between polypropylene and propylene is yuan/ton. Now the ex factory price of propylene in Shandong is yuan/ton, the price of powder is yuan/ton, and the price difference is 400 yuan. That is to say, the powder is in the situation of profit sticking to the cost line (self-produced propylene) or upside down. Some powder enterprises in Shandong begin to plan to reduce production and shut down, and the demand for propylene may decline
the price of propylene oxide in Shandong is 11800 yuan/ton, and the raw propylene is yuan/ton. The formation of propylene oxide by chlorohydrin method can be described as one of the most important reasons that restrict the large-scale utilization of lithium titanate batteries. The cost is about 9000 yuan/ton, and the profit is around 2700 yuan/ton (liquid chlorine inverted yuan/ton, including liquid chlorine, the profit of propylene oxide is more than 3200 yuan/ton). 2. Complete the corresponding experiments with suitable fixtures, and the profit of propylene oxide is considerable, Therefore, it has a strong tolerance for the price rise of raw propylene. However, Huatai will shut down on the 14th. Jinling workshop 1 will shut down for 10 days and workshop 2 will shut down for 11 days. At that time, the demand for propylene will be reduced by 700 tons/day
butanol and octanol. There are PDH enterprises in North China. Due to the impact of environmental protection inspection, propylene loading is limited, and the supply of downstream customers is reduced or suspended for a short time. In order to maintain the normal production of their own devices, the downstream of butanol and octanol has increased the procurement of propylene in Shandong. Originally, Shandong propylene itself has been subject to a lot of refining and maintenance, and the supply has been reduced by about 2000 tons. Coupled with the production of new acrylonitrile devices and a series of other positive factors, the price of propylene has increased significantly. The profit of butanol and octanol has also changed. Up to now, the price of butanol is 8000 yuan/ton, the price of octanol is 9100 yuan/ton, and its profit is about 800 yuan/ton, so the tolerance of propylene is also acceptable
the propylene supply in Northeast, Shandong and East China is slightly tight, and the inventory of production enterprises is low. Although the propylene market risk is small at present, the mentality is also acceptable. It is expected that there is still room for the rise of propylene in the short term, but the range may narrow down, which has become an important pillar of Anyang's economic development. After all, we have to consider the downstream polypropylene, the maintenance of some Po devices and the arrival of external vessels. If the good news comes to an end, the bad news begins to heat up, and we should be cautious about the risk of propylene falling back from the high level
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