The hottest machinery manufacturing lithium batter

Machinery manufacturing: lithium battery equipment leaders usher in opportunities, recommend 5 shares

this month's topic: 2.0 era, focusing on the leading industrial chain car entering the 2.0 era: from policy driven to market driven. With the increasing maturity of products, the improvement of battery energy density, the increase of consumer acceptance, the acceleration of sales in non restricted cities and the increase of the proportion of high-end models, the industry has entered stage 2.0: product power is the core element of competition, supply creates demand, and front-line manufacturers grow faster

power battery demand: in the medium and long term, the power battery ceiling is far from reaching. In 2018, the output of new energy vehicles was about 1.27 million, corresponding to the demand for power batteries of nearly 60gwh. According to the goal of the medium and long term development plan of the automotive industry, the sales target of 3C charging capacity source vehicles in 2020/2025 was 2/7 million, and the corresponding battery demand exceeded 110/420gwh

power battery supply: survival of the fittest, leading share increase. 1) The capacity utilization rate is only about 30%, which is mainly due to the serious excess of low-quality capacity and the insufficient high-quality capacity, and the low-quality capacity will be gradually eliminated in the later stage; 2) The policy raises the threshold of the industry and benefits the lithium battery leader: the policy requires that the annual production capacity of power battery single enterprises should be ≥ 8gwh, and an international leader with a production and marketing scale of more than 40gwh should be formed in 2020; 3) The expansion of first-line brands is accelerated. It is expected that the planned production capacity of first-line manufacturers will reach 340gwh in 2020. At present, it is only 191gwh, and there is still room for 149gwh

lithium battery equipment: first tier new energy vehicles + power battery plants + equipment manufacturers are deeply bound, and the strong are always strong. 1) the ceiling of the industry is high, and there is a large room for growth: Recently, according to the production capacity planning of first-line power battery manufacturers, it is estimated that the annual lithium battery equipment market space 4 with the development of science and technology is 8.4 billion yuan. According to the penetration rate of new energy vehicles/production capacity utilization rate, it is estimated that the neutral lithium battery equipment market space is about 46.9 billion yuan

2) good competition pattern: a) foreign countries take the lead in starting and domestic enterprises take the lead: domestic enterprises of core equipment such as coating machine/winding machine have occupied a dominant position; b) The concentration of core equipment suppliers in all links is high, and the leader is the leader of the industrial chain: the front leader, putailai/Keheng/Yinghe, the middle leader, and the back leader/Hangke; 3) Industry trends: A. increasing concentration: equipment is one of the core elements that determine the safety and consistency of batteries. The competition pattern continues to concentrate on the best leading enterprises, and mergers and acquisitions accelerate this process: leader + Titan, Yinghe + Yakang, Keheng + Haoneng; b. The best quality equipment manufacturers + first-line power battery manufacturers + first-line new energy vehicle enterprises, and the combination of excellent enterprises can win in the fiercely competitive market

industry perspective in 2019, we believe that opportunities in the machinery industry are more structural opportunities for special equipment growth stocks. We are mainly looking for high-quality equipment companies in the high boom segment industrial chain. It is also inconvenient to take and place samples. Structural opportunities can be grasped from two main lines: first, the main line of industrial upgrading. It is suggested to focus on the sub industries: lasers, new energy vehicles, semiconductors and industrial automation; The second is the countercyclical main line. It is suggested to focus on the following sub industries: Rail Transit and energy equipment (oil, gas, photovoltaic, etc.). This report focuses on lithium battery equipment

key recommended combinations:

key recommended combinations in February: Jiejia Weichuang, precision measurement electronics, (), pilot intelligence, Ruike laser

in January, the key recommended combinations are Jiejia Weichuang, Zhejiang Dingli, leading intelligence, (), Ruike laser. The performance of the combination in January was 3.46%, the CITIC machinery index was -0.02%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 3006.34%, and the index was -1.80%

the portfolio performed better than the industry index, outperforming the industry index every month since the portfolio was built in September last year

risk tips:

macroeconomic downturn, overseas exports downturn, exchange rate fluctuations