The hottest macro positive resonance nonferrous me

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Macro positive resonance nonferrous metals rose one after another

whether it is the introduction of foreign or domestic equipment, there has been a sharp rise in the domestic futures and financial markets since. From the perspective of background, the starting point of this round of upward movement corresponds to the improvement and recovery of the global and domestic liquidity environment under a series of easing operations of the global central banks, such as the shift of the attitude of the Federal Reserve to full doves, as well as the postponement of interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank and the reduction of reserve requirements by the people's Bank of China. At the same time, in the process of rising, some economic data improved, especially the corporate financing data increased significantly, indicating the end of corporate deleveraging and the possible stabilization of future demand, so market confidence has been significantly improved. While the Sino US trade negotiations are close to reaching an agreement, the level of political risk has decreased significantly, which is also one of the reasons why market risk appetite has begun to rise. In addition, a series of recent policies, including tax cuts and fee reductions in the capital market and talks by state leaders to encourage the development of the capital market, also reflect the confidence of the decision-making level in stabilizing the market

in addition to the macro positive stimulus, all varieties have their own positive expectations. In terms of varieties:

copper: the supply side reappears interference, and there is still room for copper prices to rise. The copper concentrate export license of Indonesia Freeport has expired, and no new export license has been obtained. It is estimated that the export of Indonesia's copper concentrate is expected to decrease by 1million tons to 200000 tons in 2019. Glencore plans to cut production at its mutanda mine, one of the largest copper and cobalt mines in Congo. The indigenous community of Nueva fuerabamba in Peru blocked the road from the Las bambas copper mine in Peru, owned by China Minmetals, to the port. The resumption of production of India's largest smelter under Vedanta was blocked, with an annual output of 400000 tons of copper. In addition, the overhaul of global smelting capacity was concentrated in the first half of this year, with a wide impact. Chile national copper said on January 31 that the smelters of Chuquicamata and Salvador mines in Chile will extend the maintenance time, and it is expected that the normal supply will not be restored until the end of March at the latest, which is expected to affect the output of 218000 tons, higher than the previous estimate of 61500 tons. According to Baichuan statistics, the overhaul of domestic smelters in the first half of the year is expected to affect the output of 91000 tons, and the output of foreign smelters is expected to affect 275100 tons. The demand side has no obvious support for copper price, but with the gradual strengthening of downstream consumption, the superposition of global inventory is significantly lower than that of the same period last year. Smelters are under centralized maintenance. This year's de stocking may be faster than that of previous years, and copper prices may continue to strengthen

aluminum: Recently, Shanghai aluminum has broken through the shock space and continued to strengthen. In the face of the changes in the macro environment after the festival, it has formed a certain positive stimulus from both the upstream supply and downstream consumption of the electrolytic aluminum industry. After digesting the risk factors of the decline in the external market during the holiday, Shanghai aluminum began to accumulate strength and rise. Affected by environmental protection and the stabilization of alumina prices in the upstream, the willingness to support prices is relatively strong, and the production reduction and shutdown are also gradually increasing. In addition, the new capacity is less than expected, which provides a certain support for aluminum prices. In the macro aspect, the frequent positive news of the Sino US trade negotiations, coupled with the slowdown and tightening of the central banks of major economies led by the Federal Reserve, has boosted the stock market and commodity markets to a certain extent. At present, the factors driving the disk have been more inclined to the macro side, and this situation will change after the two sessions. At that time, the market trend will return to the dominant fundamentals. It is suggested to continue to hold multiple orders in the short term and pay attention to the opportunity of turning high to short in March

zinc: the rise of zinc slowed down slightly after the Spring Festival, but considering the high total rise of zinc prices in Lianyang before the festival, in addition to the macro positive factors, the core driving force is the tight supply of domestic zinc ingots. The profits of domestic smelters will be released on a large scale in 2019. The core indicator is the processing fee of zinc concentrate. The average domestic processing fee rose to 6200 yuan/ton in mid February, which means that the vast majority of smelters will not lose money as long as they produce. The rapid rise of processing fees indicates that the total domestic smelting capacity is still low, the accumulation rate is slow, and the space for short-term reduction of zinc prices is limited. As of February 25, the macro positive signal in the early stage has been released. If there is no new policy stimulus, it will be maintained at the current position for wide adjustment. However, it does not rule out that the two sessions held on March 3 and March 5 will give new benefits such as the reduction of value-added tax, nor does it deny the possibility of subsequent friction in the trade negotiations, and the uncertain risk still exists. It is expected that the main contract fluctuation range of Shanghai zinc in March is yuan/ton

lead: with the increase of policy pressure, lead prices are easy to fall but difficult to rise. On the whole, lead may be the weakest non-ferrous variety in China since 2019. We believe that this weakness will continue. Policy support is the biggest reason for long-term empty lead. The construction of domestic mobile communications has accelerated, but the iron tower company has decided to use lithium batteries for all new channels, and lead batteries are only treated in echelons. Lead consumption has rarely increased, and the policy pressure on lead is self-evident. Motorcycles and vulgar four-wheel vehicles in the lower reaches of lead are trapped in growth traps, and the potential growth potential is relatively limited. The RoHS meeting has been postponed, and there is no latest time at present, but it still does not rule out the possible adverse policies of the European Union in the future, and the domestic government may add policy pressure for environmental protection acceptance. The price of lead in the external market is high, and the overall global inventory is low. The leading indicator of the subsequent decline in lead is expected to be the accumulated inventory in the foreign lead market. The lead price is expected to be yuan/ton in March, and the risk point is the policy change that exceeded the expectation of the two sessions

tin: since February, the market trend of Lunxi has been hot, and the price has been rising. The overall range is between us $00/ton, which is significantly higher than the level in January. In the domestic market, boosted by the strong external market guests who also collectively visited the center and the resin factory, and the impact of tight domestic and international supply, Shanghai tin prices as a whole showed a volatile upward trend, breaking through 150000 yuan/ton several times. Tin prices rose sharply today, mainly due to the yinman mining accident. The tightening of tin supply is expected to be about 6000 tons/year, which has a great impact on the domestic market. The low inventory at home and abroad is also the main reason for us to continue to be bullish on tin prices. In the later stage, the fundamentals of tin are still good. However, the recent Sino US trade negotiations and the resumption of Indonesian exports also bring variables to the market trend of tin, which will also give the extruder industry endless development momentum, The short-term domestic tin market trend may continue to maintain high volatility. The price of Lunxi is expected to be around 21500-22000 US dollars/ton; The price of Shanghai tin is about 149000 yuan/ton

nickel: after the short-term adjustment of the Spring Festival, nickel prices continued to rebound actively, rising to the high level of last October. At present, lunni is back above $13000, and there is still pressure near the previous high. Macro factors and non-ferrous fundamentals resonate to boost nickel stronger operation, but the later stage still needs to see the specific needs. From the perspective of supply and demand, due to the continuous upside down of internal and external disks, no favorable import profit opportunities have been formed, and the domestic electrolytic nickel inventory has tightened and declined. Previously, the domestic and foreign ferronickel production capacity expected by the market will show a large increase in 2019, but at present, the pace of production capacity is also less than expected, so the market shows a certain tight supply of ferronickel around the Spring Festival. In addition, the power restriction in Inner Mongolia, the main domestic ferronickel production area, may also be extended from March to March this year, which makes the market worried about the supply of ferronickel, but it also depends on the specific implementation, According to the historical power rationing, the impact of actual output may be relatively limited. The release of new production capacity of coastal ferronickel is still in progress, and new production capacity of foreign Indonesia is expected to be put into operation by the end of this month. Therefore, the overall supply of ferronickel is still improving

stainless steel production capacity accumulated after the holiday, which is higher than that in the same period of previous years, but there will be structural shortage. This year's construction is generally late, and gradually began after the tenth five year plan. The real demand situation has not been too hot for the time being, but the stainless steel price has rebounded. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the changes in the actual demand of the downstream. If we follow the laws of previous years, the supply improvement brought by the inventory accumulation cycle and the post holiday round of goods preparation are still easy to adjust the nickel price. Therefore, it should be noted that after the general realization and release of macro benefits in the near future, the supply side improvement gradually triggered by the release of new production capacity will also continue to occur. As the domestic stimulus policy may still have a certain effect time, the terminal demand for stainless steel may still bring some disturbance to the recovery of nickel. After the rapid rise in the early stage, the motivation for the recent nickel price to continue to rise may have been insufficient, Further driving is needed. Lunni's top position shows pressure, and China may be in the near future There are fluctuations among 50000 tons. For the time being, the high-level consolidation may be repeated, and Xinduo should not excessively pursue the rise. If the low-level multiple orders are declining in the rise, it can also consider reducing positions

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