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Macroeconomic data will be released soon, interest rate hike will enter a sensitive period

macroeconomic data will be released soon, interest rate hike will enter a sensitive period

China Construction machinery information

Guide: near the date of monthly macroeconomic data release, the possibility of the central bank using monetary policy tools again will increase the applicability of experimental data to obtain various materials. According to the frequency of raising interest rates of Heim and Constantine every two months in the early stage and raising the deposit reserve ratio every month, June is the sensitive period of raising interest rates and raising the deposit reserve ratio. From past experience, the central bank used the above policy work

as the monthly macroeconomic data is released, the possibility of the central bank using monetary policy tools again increases

according to the frequency of raising interest rates every two months and raising deposit reserve ratio every month in the previous period, June is the sensitive period of raising interest rates and raising deposit reserve ratio. According to past experience, the time point when the central bank uses the above policy tools is around the release date of macroeconomic data every month. Nowadays, the macroeconomic data release day is approaching, and the adjustment of deposit reserve ratio and interest rate becomes more subtle

the cumulative effect has not been fully released

in fact, as early as the Dragon Boat Festival on June 6, the market generally expected that the central bank would use monetary policy tools again. The last increase in the deposit reserve ratio was on May 12, nearly a month ago; The last interest rate increase was on April 5, more than two months ago

"from the reaction of many economic indicators, the economy will slow down in the next quarter or two." Zhou Jingtong, a senior economist in the Strategic Development Department of the Bank of China, believes that the effect of monetary policy in the first half of the year has not been fully released. "We should wait until the effect of monetary policy in the early stage is fully released before making a decision."

in this round of tightening, since 2010, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio for 11 consecutive times. At present, the deposit reserve ratio of large financial institutions has reached a record high of 21%; At the same time, the central bank also raised the benchmark deposit and loan interest rates for four consecutive times

in terms of frequency, from January to may, the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio every month, and the time point is mostly around the release date of monthly macroeconomic data. At the same time, in February and April, the central bank also raised the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans

the macro-economic data in May has not been released, but so far, the PMI and other data released by the Planning Bureau of the unified fixture crank test and the toothed disc test fixture respectively show that the macro-economy has slowed down (3) tpj-5, 10, 20, 50 have signs of spring fracture automatic shutdown function. At the academic and market levels, the voice of "overshoot" of monetary policy even sounded

according to the research report released by CICC on the 6th, economic activity is expected to slow down slightly in May. The growth of industrial added value and fixed asset investment slowed down, and the destocking behavior of enterprises was significant; Consumption has increased steadily; Export growth slowed, import growth rose, and the surplus expanded compared with April

on the one hand, economic growth has slowed down, but on the other hand, inflationary pressure should not be underestimated. The experts interviewed believed that the target of controlling inflation within 4% this year could hardly be achieved. Guotai Junan research report predicts that CPI in May was 5.3%; CPI in June was 6.0%; The average annual CPI in 2011 was 4.8%

the CICC research report also predicted that the CPI in May was 5.6% year-on-year, and the possibility of exceeding 6% in June increased. If the rise of non food prices in June is not well suppressed, or food prices continue to rise significantly above the historical average, the CPI in June may exceed 6% year-on-year

therefore, whether the economic slowdown or high inflation will dominate the monetary policy of the central bank has become the key to dominate the future trend of the market

On June 3, the central bank reiterated in the China financial stability report that it would implement a prudent monetary policy in 2011. The central bank also launched a massive 28 day repurchase of 100billion yuan in response to funds maturing in the open market. These signs show that the central bank is very determined to control the monetary conditions of inflation

"I don't think the monetary policy is over adjusted. It may be too early to relax the policy now." Economists at Standard Chartered Bank in China believe that if "maintaining growth" is still the first place in the future, the central bank may adopt a wait-and-see attitude in June and July

the senior economist of Industrial Bank believes that the current monetary policy should neither turn left nor right, and should remain normal and neutral. The neutrality mentioned by Political Commissar Lu here is for overshoot, and does not mean inaction. "If there is more water (i.e. liquidity), the central bank will still pump away the water."

"prices will be a high point in June and July, and will go down thereafter, but will also remain relatively high." Zhou Jingtong also said that the current macro-control policies, especially the pace of monetary policy, should be slowed down and the effect should be observed first

however, the analysis report of the financial market department of China Merchants Bank believes that the current benchmark interest rate is far from representing the current real interest rate level. The financial "disintermediation" in recent months has led to the current yield of financial products being much higher than the current deposit interest rate. Whether it is to fight inflation or change the imbalance of funds, it requires the deposit interest rate to rise further

the above CMB report also said that the new real loan interest rate has been close to the peak in 2007, and the continued rise has a great impact not only on the enterprise level, but also on the stock loans in the early stage. This leads to different expectations of interest rate hikes from different perspectives of deposit and loan. The final report is more likely to raise interest rates, especially for deposit interest rates, the necessity of raising interest rates is greater

researchers from the financial research center of Bank of communications predict that the possibility of raising interest rates in June is relatively large; As for the reserve ratio, the future adjustment will slow down when the current level is already relatively high

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